#1 Culture
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Traders continue to pile into Spider-Man: Brand New Day as the overwhelming favorite to become 2026’s highest-grossing film.
Leading: Spider-Man: Brand New Day · 9 more outcomes tracked
93%
+1.0pp 24h
Prizma
A 4-minute daily read of what real money is betting on.
Every weekday morning, the biggest prediction-market move — explained with sourced context. Free, no spam.
Moving nowThu, 13 Aug 2026 12:00:03 GMT
Biggest odds moves — last 24 hours
7 tracked marketsDisclosure: Polymarket links are affiliate. We earn a small commission if you trade — it doesn't influence which markets we cover.
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- #2 Politics
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra’s implied probability edged up 0.3 percentage points to 92.8% over the past 24 hours, a marginal gain that lacks a clear catalyst. The California governor market rem
Leading: Xavier Becerra · 9 more outcomes tracked
93%+0.3pp 24h - #3 Science
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
The probability that 2026 will see a hantavirus pandemic has crept slightly higher over the past 30 days, moving from roughly 2.5% to 3.9%. Over the last 24 hours, however, the mar
Leading: Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4%-0.1pp 24h - #4 Sports
F1 Drivers' Champion
The F1 Drivers' Champion market has been remarkably stable over the past 24 hours, with Kimi Antonelli holding firm at 74.5% after a sharp 30-day climb from 58.8%. No single news i
Leading: Kimi Antonelli · 9 more outcomes tracked
74%— 24h - #5 Politics
Brazil Presidential Election
The Brazil presidential election market saw a modest shift in the past 24 hours, with Flávio Bolsonaro’s implied probability rising 0.8 percentage points to 28.1%, while Luiz Ináci
Leading: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · 9 more outcomes tracked
64%— 24h - #6 Politics
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
The Nobel Peace Prize prediction market has seen little net movement over the past 24 hours.
Leading: Yulia Navalnaya · 9 more outcomes tracked
9%— 24h - #7 Politics
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
The market for Venezuela’s leader at year-end 2026 shows minimal movement in the past 24 hours, with Nicolás Maduro remaining dominant at 82.0% implied probability. The betting odd
Leading: Nicolás Maduro · 9 more outcomes tracked
82%— 24h